The Shrinking Glaciers Project

Lake Karakul (also Kara-Kul; Tajik for “Black Lake”) is located in eastern Tajikistan, high in the glaciated Pamir Mountains, and administratively forms part of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region in Central Asia. Covering roughly 380 km², it is a high‑altitude, endorheic glacierised-basin lake, fed by water from surrounding glaciers.

It lies south of the Trans-Alai Range, about 15 kilometres west of the border with China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and approximately 225 kilometres west of the city of Kashgar in a straight line. Situated at an elevation of around 4,020 m asl, Lake Karakul is among the world’s highest large lakes. It is encircled by numerous striking, very high mountain ranges. Access from the north is possible via the Kyzyl-Art Pass (4,270 m) along the Pamir Highway. The settlement of Karaart is located on the lake’s eastern shore.

Glacial lakes are natural water bodies formed through glacial processes, particularly the melting of glacial ice and the damming of water by moraines or ice barriers. In Tajikistan, such lakes are found predominantly in the high-mountain regions of the Pamir and Hisor-Oloi systems, occurring mainly at elevations between roughly 2,500 and 5,000 m asl. Their formation is closely linked to increased melting in both the accumulation and ablation zones of glaciers.

Long-term studies of representative reference glaciers in Tajikistan show that, from the beginning of systematic glaciological surveys in 1956 until 2021, virtually all observed glaciers have been retreating continuously. This trend is particularly pronounced in the major river basins, which also contain the country’s most extensive glaciated areas. Glacier retreat is evident in the marked reduction of glacier area, the recession of glacier tongues, the lowering of glacier surfaces, and a substantial loss of ice volume.

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The Fedchenko Glacier is situated in the northern central part of Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, within the Yazgulem Range of the Western Pamir Mountains. It is the largest glacier outside the polar regions. Officially renamed Vanch-Yakh by the Tajik government, the glacier extends for 77 km, descending from approximately 6,200 m asl to about 2,900 m asl. Its surface area is roughly 700 km², with a maximum ice thickness of around 1,000 m and an estimated total ice volume of 144 km³.

Although the glacier was long regarded as relatively stable compared with many other glaciers worldwide, long-term observations and recent datasets indicate a clear trend of retreat. Notably, pronounced ice‑thickness reduction was recorded between 2010 and 2021. One factor moderating the rate of mass loss is the extensive debris cover (moraines) on its surface, which provides thermal insulation and reduces melt rates.

In certain parts of the Pamir Mountains, increased snowfall over recent decades has temporarily contributed to glacier stability or even slight advances – a phenomenon often referred to as the “Pamir anomaly.” However, recent studies, including work by ISTA Austria and Swiss research teams, suggest that this phase of stability has ended. Since approximately 2018-2021, even the previously most stable glaciers in the region have exhibited substantial mass loss, indicating that a critical climatic tipping point has been surpassed under ongoing warming.

Monte Perdido, the highest peak in the Ordesa y Monte Perdido National Park at 3,355 m asl, rises in the province of Huesca, northern Aragon, Spain. Its exceptional biodiversity drew naturalists and mountaineers throughout the 18th and 19th centuries, captivated by the fact that it forms the tallest limestone massif in Europe.

On its northern flank lies the Monte Perdido Glacier — one of the few remaining glaciers in the Pyrenees and a defining emblem of the national park.

The intense heatwaves of the summers of 2022 and 2023 triggered a marked retreat of the Pyrenean glaciers. Projections suggest that within the next one to two decades, these glaciers may vanish entirely.

Recent measurements from the Monte Perdido Glacier underscore this alarming trajectory: between 2011 and 2023, its ice volume has shrunk by 20%, and the glacier has fractured into two distinct sections.

Additional measurements taken in 2023 revealed that the glacier had receded by an average of 3.8 m, with the eastern sector thinning by as much as 8.1 m. The effects of climate change on the Monte Perdido Glacier are increasingly severe: it has now been officially listed in the Global Glacier Casualty List — an international registry that tracks glaciers deemed irreversibly endangered or already lost due to global warming.